I was listening to the news a few years ago, and a moment caught my attention — a moment that was funny at the time and yet led to a deeper truth about how we come to understand the world.
A Member of Parliament (MP, a federal lawmaker) was being interviewed soon after the Uri military operation strikes that the Indian Army executed — a courageous and tactical response widely known as a “surgical strike.” Clearly sentimental and ecstatic on the occasion, the lawmaker went ahead to launch into a praise of Prime Minister Modi with passionate admiration, describing the move as unprecedented and bold in the history of independent India.
The journalist who interviewed him asked a straightforward question:
“But Mr MP, you think what Prime Minister Modi has done never happened before? What of Indira Gandhi in 1971? Or what Pandit Nehru did in his time? Both PMs have taken equally daring steps during their times.”
The Lawmaker paused. Then he threw out something I’ve never forgotten, added with unexpected humility:
“Well, I admit, I might be mistaken. I was pretty young during the times of PM Nehru or PM Indira, particularly when such bold actions might have taken place.”
Everyone in the room fell silent, and I smiled. It was honest. It was human. And more than anything, it was true in a way we tend to overlook.
When Truth Is Older Than Us — But New to Us
In that moment, I was called back to something bigger. Think of a person who never attended school, who never opened a book or watched a documentary. To them, if nobody ever told them about the shape of our planet, the Earth may appear flat. When you explain that it’s round — or, more correctly, an oblate spheroid — they may go, “Really? I didn’t know that!”
And now you may scoff and say, “But that’s been known for centuries!”
Yes — it has been known. But not by them. Not in their world. To them, this reality is brand new. They might not have felt the need even to think about the shape of the earth as they might not have gone beyond 200 miles from their house.
This gap is something I’ve begun to refer to as Personal Discovery Lag — the amount of time that passes between when some aspect of the world is discovered by society at large and when you discover it.
When the World Already Knew — Except You
This notion of Personal Discovery Lag closely relates to Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work — specifically his Turkey Problem and Black Swan theory.
The Turkey Problem: The Illusion of Safety
Taleb writes about a turkey being fed each day by a farmer. As each day passes, the turkey gains more confidence in the farmer — until one fateful day, right around Thanksgiving, the turkey gets slaughtered.
Why did the turkey fail to see that coming? Because its training and encounters with events till the thanksgiving hadn’t accounted for that possibility. The farmer’s intention was always there — but the turkey never knew.
Just as the MP didn’t know about the historical boldness of past leaders, the turkey didn’t know the nature of its fate.
Personal Discovery Lag left it oblivious — until the end.
The Black Swan: Shocks the Uninformed
Taleb’s Black Swan is a very rare event, unpredictable (to most), with a huge impact. The 2008 financial crash, 9/11, and COVID-19 — all were Black Swans to some — but not for those who studied the patterns deeply.
The Black Swan is mostly a Hidden Lag of “Personal Discovery”
The knowledge existed. Warnings were there. But you hadn’t found them — not yet.
Just as the lawmaker was unaware of the history of Nehru’s or Indira Gandhi’s military decisions, we are ignorant of truths simply because we have had neither the reason nor the opportunity to look for them.
Here’s a real-world example and a way to put this idea into practice in the most beautiful shape:
Let me tell you about the residents of the Kangaroo Island, which is a big island off the coast of South Australia. There’s a cozy little town there called American River, which hosts a plethora of black swans. But for someone who’s only seen white swans, seeing a black swan for the first time may be a Black Swan moment in itself — rare, unexpected, even mind-blowing.
But to American River residents, black swans are no surprise. It’s part of everyday life.
What’s rare or shocking to you might be routine to somebody else —just because they heard of it sooner.
Why Personal Discovery Lag Should Matter
We like to think that if something is known, everybody knows it. But that’s not true. There is no universal, instant transfer of knowledge. Just because an idea is “out there” doesn’t mean it’s hit in here — in a person’s mind, memory or life.
And in the lawmaker’s case, he was not rewriting history. He was merely admitting that his personal knowledge hadn’t yet caught up to a matter of historical record. He had found a truth — the audaciousness of military action — in the here and now, not realizing that it has pedigree in history.
And that is not ignorance. That is actual, active discovery.
Less Judgment, More Understanding
This concept is teaching us something very profound — to be more patient with others. It doesn’t mean that everyone who lacks certain knowledge is wilfully ignorant. In many cases, they simply haven’t seen it yet.
When we laugh at someone who does not know something, we forget that we all have our blind spots. Tomorrow we may discover truths about science, history, politics and even personal well-being that others have known for decades.
The appropriate response is not condemnation, but curiosity.
Not “How do you not know that?”
But “Here’s what I’ve learned about how this works.
In an Age of Information, Be Curious
You’d think that knowledge is all over the place, given the internet age. However, the human brain doesn’t download all at once. You get taught by exposure, interest, context, and timing.
So next time someone shares something you consider “old news,” stop and think:
To them, it could be a hot scoop.
For them, it may be a moment of awe.
And if you’re lucky, they might show you something you never really saw that way before.
As the lawmaker did for me.
The End
Notes & References
- The Black Swan and The Turkey Problem – Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2007, 2012)
- Interview clips and political commentary post-2016 surgical strikes (media coverage by NDTV, Zee News, Times Now)
- Concept of Personal Epistemology – Hofer & Pintrich (2002)
- Kangaroo Island, South Australia – Known for black swans in American River (South Australia Tourism)
- Bird reference – Black Swan (Cygnus atratus), Birdlife Australia
Well thought. Something really to ponder