The Cost of Worrying About the Future
Once, when Abraham Lincoln was journeying across Illinois as a young lawyer, he was riding with a companion who became anxious as they were getting nearer to the Fox River, a waterway that could swell and flood without warning.
“How will we cross the river if it is too high? What if it’s impassable?” the man asked in worried tones.
Lincoln calmly replied:
“I have a habit of not crossing rivers before I reach them.”
He wasn’t saying, “Close your mind to the future.”
He was basically saying, “Don’t torture yourself today for something that may never happen.”
Modern Worry: The River We Attempt to Cross Too Soon
Today, we are awash in rivers in our heads — rivers we haven’t yet crossed but are dreading:
- What if I lose my job?
- What if I fail this exam?
- What if no one loves me?
- What if I never get to realize my dreams?
- What if I become ill, or get old, or just die alone?
These questions put up walls in our minds.
They yank us out of the moment and drop us squarely in fear. And the sad truth is - most of these fears never even materialize.
Imagine a man in olden times who walks through a nearby forest every day to trade some goods in a village. One day, he hears that someone had once seen a lion in the forest.
He never goes back; he refuses to go from that day. He stays home. His trade stops. He loses income. He isolates himself. All because of a story — of a lion that might exist here.
He doesn’t fear the lion: only the thought of the lion torments him.
What Nassim Taleb would probably call a failure to distinguish between possibility and probability. Just because something is possible does not mean it is going to happen for sure. And even if it does, being afraid of it ahead of time just makes you suffer twice.
Science Says You Should Ignore Most of Your Worries
In a widely cited analysis, researchers found that:
85 per cent of what we worry about never even occurs. Of the other 15%, 79% coped better than they thought they would or learned something useful. Just 3% of fears actually turn out worse than expected.
But we worry for hours, for days, for years over the 3%.
(Harvard Business Review, “Your Brain on Anxiety”)
Another study published in Psychological Bulletin found chronic worry elevates — cortisol, the body’s stress hormone. Elevated cortisol levels:
- Damage your immune system
- Harm your heart
- Enhanced depression and anxiety
- Diminish your capacity for clear thinking
- And even shorten the number of years in your life.
In brief: Anxiety makes you sicker, sadder and slower.
The Price of Worrying Too Soon
The Price of Worrying Too Soon
1. Priya and the Bakery That Never Was
Priya had a lifelong dream of opening a small bakery in her town. She was a good baker, a devoted friend who had loyal pals who told her cakes were better than anything they had eaten.
But whenever she thought about getting started, anxiety kicked in:
- “What if nobody comes?”
- “What if I lose money?”
- “What if I fail and everyone laughs?”
So, she never started.
Five years later, she is still stuck in an office job she hates. The bakery exists only in her mind — a dream imprisoned by fear of a river she never even walked to.
2. Rahul and the Scholarship that Wasn’t:
Rahul wanted to study abroad. He researched universities, chose the ideal course, and met the criteria for a generous scholarship.
But then he thought:
- “What if I get rejected?”
- “Well, what if I spend my time applying?”
- “What if I go away and something terrible happens back home?”
He never applied. He still wonders what might have been.
3. Meera and the Relationship in Which She Stayed
Meera was in a live-in relationship that made her feel less: unloved, devalued, insecure. But every time she considered leaving, dread consumed her:
- “What if I don’t meet anybody else?
- “What if I never meet someone and I’m single forever?”
- “What if it is too late for me?
So she stayed. For years.
She was now suffering from a pain that may never materialize.
The Mental Model: Cross the Bridge When You Come to It
Lincoln’s wisdom provides us with a mental framework:
- Catch the Thought: “I’m afraid of the future.”
- Ask: “Is this something I’m dealing with right now — or something I’m just afraid will happen?”
- Decide: If it doesn’t qualify as a real problem today, file it away in a “future drawer.”
When you need it, that drawer is there. Until then, live your life.
Preparing is wise. Pre-suffering is not.
A Daily Ritual — The Anti-Worry Habit
Here’s a helpful way to deal with worry:
- List your top 3 worries.
- For each one, ask: “Can I mitigate this fear today?”
- If yes, take that small step.
- If no, tell yourself: “I’ll deal with that river when I come to it. Today, I walk the road.”
- Repeat daily.
This single habit can wipe your mind from anxiety and bring calm awareness.
Lincoln’s story is not just a clever tale. It’s a guide for living wisely in the here and now.
The rivers we’re afraid of, they’re smaller than they seem. And even the big ones — once we get to them — are seldom crossed alone.
So ask yourself: Am I living my life, or drowning in fears?
Because life is not meant to be wasted on the banks of imaginary catastrophes.
It’s intended to be lived — one peaceful step at a time.
Never cross the river before you get there.
You were meant to live today — not drown in tomorrow.
Sources & References
- Abraham Lincoln Quote – Commonly attributed to Lincoln during his time as a circuit lawyer; featured in leadership books and biographies.
- Worry Statistics (85% Rule) –
Referenced in:- Harvard Business Review, “Your Brain on Anxiety” (2014)
- Originally attributed to Dr. Walter Cavert (not peer-reviewed)
- Psychological Effects of Worry –
- Meta-analysis: Borkovec, T. D., et al.
- Published in Psychological Bulletin: chronic worry increases cortisol and impairs health.
- Philosophical Framing –
- Inspired by Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s ideas from The Black Swan and Antifragile: the distinction between Possibility vs Probability.
- Examples & Scenarios –
- Fictionalized for illustration; based on real psychological patterns and coaching experiences